News & Views: Market Sizing Update 2023

We are proud to share a video recording of our October News & Views companion online discussion forum! Join us for our annual update of the market size and revenue share of Open Access and a lively conversation around the trends and the wider issues that may be informing the overall market in scholarly communications.  If you missed the session, or if you attended and would like to watch/listen again, or share forward with friends, please feel free!

Overview Each year, Delta Think’s Market Sizing analyzes the value of the open access (OA) scholarly journals market. This is the revenue generated by providers or the costs incurred by buyers of content. We estimate the OA segment of the market to have grown to just over $2.2bn in 2023. This is only a marginal growth over the previous year. It is a small fraction of the long-term historical growth of the OA segment. A reduction in the output of the large OA-only publishers has had a profound effect on the market. It has benefited established publishers, who are seeing a growth in OA, even while the overall market softens. We expect this pattern to continue in 2024. Have we reached peak open access? Have the underlying drivers of OA changed? And are we now in an era of lower OA growth? Headline findings Our models suggest the following headlines for open access market sizing:

Artificial Intelligence’s (AI) seemingly endless capabilities and applications present great opportunities (and some challenges too) for publishers and societies across the publishing enterprise. One of the main areas of both growth and reason for caution to emerge is the potential to license scholarly content to AI providers—primarily to be used to “train” large language models (LLMs). While this type of licensing opportunity may be compelling, it requires thoughtful integration into the organization’s overall content portfolio management and revenue strategy. Recently announced licensing agreements between scholarly and academic publishers and technology companies highlight AI’s insatiable demand for primary, verified, reliable information. AI developers rely on this high-quality, vetted content to train models, refine algorithms, and enhance natural language processing capabilities. This demand can present a lucrative opportunity for publishers to license content – aka the knowledge needed for training. It also raises important strategic questions about ownership, sustainability, and long-term business models that should not be ignored in the process. Opportunity vs. Risk: Licensing Content Do’s and Don’ts If a partnership with an AI company seems intriguing, it is…as long as you proceed with an understanding of how this opportunity may play out for your organization and where on the classic innovation adoption curve you are comfortable. Here is a handy checklist to help you evaluate the opportunities and risks of licensing content to AI providers. Keep in mind, YMMV, as will your priorities. Do: Integrate Licensing into Overall Content Strategy – View AI licensing as part of a broader content portfolio management plan to align with business objectives and sustain long-term value. Prioritize Content Based on Value – Categorize content by demand and monetization potential to tailor licensing strategies for different segments (e.g., niche vs. broad appeal). Introduce Strategic Pricing Models – Experiment with flexible pricing strategies like volume-based, usage-based, or hybrid models to reflect content value and accommodate AI providers’ diverse needs. Complement and Enhance Existing Revenue Streams – Ensure that AI licensing supports rather than undermines other revenue channels (subscriptions, APCs, institutional licensing, etc.). Consider tiered access or differentiated pricing for recent vs. older content. Collaborate with AI Companies Ethically – Build partnerships that ensure responsible content usage. Establish guidelines for ethical AI content generation, labeling, and attribution. Protect Author Rights – Ensure that licensing agreements comply with existing contracts and protect authors’ rights. Proactively manage relationships with scholars to maintain trust and uphold their interests. Be Prepared for Market Shifts – Experimentation is the order of the day but the market and innovation is moving fast. Adopt flexible frameworks to quickly adjust to technological changes or shifts in demand for licensed content. Maintain Transparency and Communication – Keep authors, research communities, and internal stakeholders informed about how the organization’s content is licensed and used by AI firms. Consider Partnering with Other Content Providers – Strategically partner with publishing peers to offer a broader range of niche content. Collectively negotiate through a ‘power in numbers’ approach. Don’t: Rely Solely on AI-Driven Revenue – Avoid becoming over-reliant on revenue from AI licensing, as market shifts could jeopardize financial stability if demand for licensed content declines. Undermine Content Value – Be cautious of pricing models that risk devaluing content over time, especially as AI-generated content becomes more sophisticated. Ignore Unintended Consequences – Don’t overlook the potential for content devaluation or the blurring of lines between original research and AI-generated outputs. Neglect Author Concerns – Don’t disregard the potential for author questions, dissatisfaction, or misuse of their work. Always respect contractual obligations and maintain productive relationships with the academic community. Overlook Ethical Concerns – Avoid participating in licensing agreements without ensuring ethical guidelines for the use of AI-generated content, including issues like data privacy and security. Ignore the Long-Term Impact on Scholarly Publishing – Don’t assume AI-driven licensing won’t affect traditional publication models. Proactively assess how AI might impact and change peer review, publication demand, and researcher incentives. Final Thoughts Licensing content to AI providers is certainly a potential opportunity for publishers. That opportunity also comes with possible risks and the need for some caution. These Do’s and Don’ts serve as a starting point to help you begin to frame out how partnerships with AI providers may or may not “fit” with your strategy, mission, and organizational goals, while acknowledging the need to consider safeguards to protect the integrity of your content, author relationships, and long-term sustainability. Delta Think can help your organization understand the unique opportunities and challenges of integrating AI licensing into a comprehensive content portfolio management strategy. Ready to start the conversation? Contact us today. As Ideas in Action went to press, Ithaka S&R announced a Generative AI Licensing Agreement Tracker to help capture the details, impact, and strategy of these deals.

In July, we shared a sneak peek at the 2023 market size, based on our annual publisher survey, and we’re currently heads down finalizing our analysis of the trends, along the corresponding revenue for both fully OA and hybrid content. Look for this important update News & Views in mid-October. We’ll also hold our annual free webinar… Read More The post News & Views: Register now for Delta Think’s 2024 Market Sizing Update Webinar appeared first on Delta Think.

AI technologies have already sparked profound changes across our industry, enabling machines to perform tasks that previously required an abundance of human intelligence. AI algorithms can analyze vast datasets to uncover patterns, LLMs can generate coherent text, and genAI can simulate human-like creativity. Here we explore some of the current use-cases to see how far… Read More The post Exploring AI appeared first on Delta Think.

Each year, Delta Think analyzes the volume and value of the scholarly journals market. This month, we present preliminary results about volumes of journal output ahead of our full sizing results later in the year. Total publication volumes continue to increase across the whole market, and for Open Access. However, Open Access (OA) lost share… Read More The post News & Views: Open Access Loses Share – Market Sizing 2024 Sneak Peek appeared first on Delta Think.

Earlier in the year, we looked at the latest Article Processing Charges (APCs). This month we look at how they have risen compared with inflation. We saw some larger-than-average price rises going into 2024. Does this suggest prices are rising, or might APCs be reducing in real terms? Background Each year we survey the list Article… Read More The post News & Views: The Realities of Increasing Open Access Charges appeared first on Delta Think.

This month we update our review of sponsored (“diamond”) open access journals. As conversations about non-APC based open access models are continuing at pace, we find out if anything has changed over the last year. Background We have previously discussed how APC-based models of open access (even with waivers) have been increasingly criticized as non-inclusive. We… Read More The post News & Views: Sponsored Journals Update appeared first on Delta Think.

Following our recent analysis of the effects of inflation and exchange rates, this month we examine the underlying fundamentals. We look at how the scholarly journals market is defined, as well as its total value. Background After we explored of the effects of inflation, we received some questions about our figures on the total value of… Read More The post News & Views: Total Value of Scholarly Journals Market appeared first on Delta Think.