News & Views: The Impact of Inflation on APC Costs

In March 2025, we looked at the latest Article Processing Charges (APCs). This month we focus on how prices have risen relative to inflation. As APC price increases fall back to trend, what does this mean in real terms?
Background
Each year we survey the list Article Processing Charges (APCs) of more than 30 major and significant publishers. Going back to 2015, the dataset includes more than 20,000 unique titles and 150,000 title per year combinations. Going into 2025, we saw price increases fall back to long-term trends from their unusually high increases in 2024. Fully OA (“gold”) journal list prices across our sample rose by around 6.5%, compared with a 9.5% increase this time last year. Hybrid list prices rose by an average of 3%, compared with 4.2%.
Last year’s price rises were above long term trends, but overall we found they were rising below inflation. How does this hold for this year’s price increases?
We again use the global Consumer Price Index (CPI) as our inflation index, as we consider it to represent the most realistic view of our marketplace. Prices exclude zero APCs, so we can see the effects for instances when publishers choose to charge APCs.
Are APCs becoming cheaper or more expensive?
The chart below shows how increases in all list APCs work out in real terms for both hybrid and fully OA journals.

n=125,164. Sources: the International Monetary Fund, Publishers’ websites (Dec 2016, Jan 2018-Jan 2025), Delta Think analysis. © 2025, Delta Think Inc. All rights reserved.
The figure above compares the average annual changes in APCs as stated (top, blue line) with those adjusted for inflation (bottom, red line).
- Positive numbers mean prices are increasing; negative ones mean they are falling.
- For most years, APCs have fallen in real terms. In other words, they are increasing more slowly than inflation.
- The exception is in 2021, when we saw large increases but a modest rate of inflation.
- To put the numbers in context, inflation (we use the global CPI) averages around 4%, but we saw it spiking to just over 8% in 2022. It is forecasted by the IMF to be 4.5% in 2025.
- Because of the large number of hybrid journals, the averages across all OA journals are similar to those for hybrid journals.
Fully OA Prices
How does the picture look for the higher rates of increase in just fully OA journal prices? The fully OA landscape is shown in Figure 2.

n=24,637. Sources: the International Monetary Fund, Publishers’ websites (Dec 2016, Jan 2018-Jan 2024), Delta Think analysis. © 2025, Delta Think Inc. All rights reserved.
The figure above compares the average annual changes in APCs of fully OA journals as stated (top, blue line) with those adjusted for inflation (bottom, red line).
- As before, positive numbers mean prices are increasing; negative ones mean they are falling.
- Here, the picture is different. Fully OA APCs have risen in real terms as least as often as they have fallen in real terms.
- The above-inflationary price rises were especially noticeable going into 2021 and going into 2024. They remain slightly above inflation going into 2025.
Conclusion
Overall, OA prices are increasing below inflation. The data suggest that authors continue to get (modestly) increasing value for money for their OA fees.
However, the headlines are skewed by the large number of hybrid journals. When looking only at fully OA (“gold”) journals, prices are rising slightly faster than inflation. Our market sizing data suggest that significantly more articles are published in fully OA journals than in hybrid, so the inflationary effects will be more prevalent than the real-terms cost savings for hybrid. Although it’s worth noting that fully OA prices are cheaper than those for hybrid, so they are growing from a lower base.
As discussions continue about the increasing cost and affordability of OA, it’s important to keep an eye on the nuances of real terms effects.
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This article is © 2025 Delta Think, Inc. It is published under a
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TOP HEADLINES
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