Overview
Each year, Delta Think’s Market Sizing analyzes the value of the open access (OA) scholarly journals market. This is the revenue generated by providers or the costs incurred by buyers of content.
We estimate the OA segment of the market to have grown to just over $2.2bn in 2023. This is only a marginal growth over the previous year. It is a small fraction of the long-term historical growth of the OA segment.
A reduction in the output of the large OA-only publishers has had a profound effect on the market. It has benefited established publishers, who are seeing a growth in OA, even while the overall market softens. We expect this pattern to continue in 2024.
Have we reached peak open access? Have the underlying drivers of OA changed? And are we now in an era of lower OA growth?
Our models suggest the following headlines for open access market sizing:
We estimate that the OA market grew to just over $2.2bn in 2023.
As ever, we are very grateful to the organizations that participate in our annual survey, which we anonymize and aggregate to inform our estimates. We will shortly send our usual detailed market update and analysis to participants, which breaks out fully OA and hybrid details.
Our market estimates focus on research publications for which money is likely to be paid, either to read or to publish. Our definition of open access excludes “bronze” (public access) and “green” (repository-only) articles.
Rather than simply looking at annual figures, we extract underlying trends to inform strategic decision-making. Each year our source data improves, and we can refine our view on resulting trends as more information becomes available. Therefore, each year we restate historic figures as needed to keep them up to date.
We have seen a stalling of OA growth in 2023, particularly in fully OA output. We are likely seeing a systemic shift to slower long-term growth as the underlying drivers of the market change.
The large OA-only publishers saw a significant drop in their output in 2023, and this has had a profound effect on the market.
The data suggest that OA’s share of output has likely peaked in 2023.
In 2023, around 50% of output was OA, accounting for around 20% of its value. This means that on average less money changes hands for OA articles than for non-OA ones.
It’s difficult to make predictions – especially about the future. That said, we think that 2023 could prove to be a pivotal year for open access.
The challenges facing the big OA-only publishers in 2023 have been well-rehearsed. Delisting from Web of Science has led to an exodus of authors from across their portfolios. In 2022, we estimated that the big OA publishers – MDPI, Frontiers and Hindawi – together accounted for over 30% of OA market volume. It’s not surprising, then, that a decline in output from these publishers had a profound effect on the marketplace.
The results have been a mix of cannibalization and leakage. Established publishers and other access models have captured some of the publishing demand. Some content may have been subsumed into fixed-price deals, and so has not led to an increase in overall revenue. Then, given the quality concerns of special issues, it’s likely that a good proportion has simply disappeared. The signal to noise ratio has improved, and special issues are no longer fueling the growth that they once did.
The fundamental driver of OA used to be the policies of funder organizations. Now it appears to be those of Clarivate.
We have therefore seen a flatlining of OA growth, and OA share of output is struggling to get beyond 50%. Our models suggest it may pick up in the long term. But for now, at least, we estimate that its share has peaked.
Our industry does not systematically report comprehensive data about market volumes or value. So, any market sizing is an approximation, and figures should be taken as approximate. Subscribers to our Data & Analytics Tool can drill into the numbers in much greater depth, including analyzing fully OA vs. Hybrid OA details, society-specific output and subscription output. Please get in touch if you want to know more.
This article is © 2024 Delta Think, Inc. It is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Please do get in touch if you want to use it in other contexts – we’re usually pretty accommodating.
Open Access Partnerships Key to Increasing the Global Impact of African Research – October 16, 2024
“The work of researchers in Africa is experiencing increased international reach, supported by new open access (OA) partnerships between research libraries and publishers. Recent forums in South Africa have highlighted the importance of this cooperation for the continued growth and impact of Africa’s rich research output.”
cOAlition S announces the release of an independent study on the impact of Plan S – October 15, 2024
“cOAlition S is pleased to announce the release of an independent, comprehensive study assessing the impact of Plan S on the scholarly communication landscape. Conducted by scidecode science consulting, following a tender process, this study provides the first assessment of the impact of Plan S five years after its launch.”
Over 50 Independent Publishers Commit to BioOne Subscribe to Open Pilot – October 8, 2024
“BioOne, the leading nonprofit aggregator in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences, today announced that 71 titles from 54 global societies, museums, and research organizations will participate in its Subscribe to Open (S2O) pilot beginning in January 2026. This represents the largest number of independent publishers under a single S2O offer to date.”
Taylor & Francis Announces Subscribe to Open Journals Pilot – October 1, 2024
“Taylor & Francis has today announced its first Subscribe to Open (S2O) pilot, one of several innovative options it is trialing to accelerate open access (OA) publishing. S2O enables a journal’s subscribers to support its conversion to OA, making new articles available to readers everywhere.”
Update on UKRI’s journey to open access – September 16, 2024
“UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) is working collaboratively with stakeholders to support implementation of its open access policy. The policy applied since April 2022 for research articles and since January 2024 for monographs, book chapters and edited collections.”
EULAR Launches New Open-access Journal – EULAR Rheumatology Open (ERO)
“The European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) proudly announces the launch of its new open-access journal, a pioneering platform dedicated to advancing research and knowledge in the field of rheumatology.”
Penn State University Libraries Open Publishing launches Stroke Clinician journal
“Penn State University Libraries’ Open Publishing program has partnered with the Association of Neurovascular Clinicians (ANVC) to launch a new open access clinical journal, Stroke Clinician.”
AIP Publishing to Launch New Open Access Journal, APL Computational Physics
“AIP Publishing announced today the latest addition in its open access portfolio, APL Computational Physics. The new journal is slated to open for submissions in early 2025.”
“The European Society of Endocrinology (ESE) is delighted to announce the launch of two new multidisciplinary, open-access journals, Environmental Endocrinology and Obesity and Endocrinology. The Journals will be published by Oxford University Press, with the launch issues scheduled for Q2 2025.”
IOP Publishing expands its open access environmental portfolio with Environmental Research: Water
“IOP Publishing (IOPP) is launching Environmental Research: Water a new open access (OA) journal which offers an interdisciplinary forum for researchers working to achieve water sustainability globally.”