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News & Views: Market Sizing Update 2024: Has OA Hit A Peak?

Dan Pollock, Ann Michael • October 22, 2024

Overview


Each year, Delta Think’s Market Sizing analyzes the value of the open access (OA) scholarly journals market. This is the revenue generated by providers or the costs incurred by buyers of content.


We estimate the OA segment of the market to have grown to just over $2.2bn in 2023. This is only a marginal growth over the previous year. It is a small fraction of the long-term historical growth of the OA segment.

A reduction in the output of the large OA-only publishers has had a profound effect on the market. It has benefited established publishers, who are seeing a growth in OA, even while the overall market softens. We expect this pattern to continue in 2024.


Have we reached peak open access? Have the underlying drivers of OA changed? And are we now in an era of lower OA growth?


Headline findings


Our models suggest the following headlines for open access market sizing:

We estimate that the OA market grew to just over $2.2bn in 2023.


  • 2023’s OA market grew by just under 1.7% from 2022. This less than one tenth of its historic growth.


  • We estimate the total scholarly journals market to have increased by 1.2% in 2023, compared with its long-term low single-digit growth around 5%.


  • Around 50% of all scholarly articles were published as paid-for open access in 2023, accounting for just over 20% of corresponding market value.


  • The large fully open access publishers saw a significant drop in their output in 2023. We are likely also seeing the tail-end of the correction from the very high OA growth during COVID. This has led to a collapse in growth of fully OA output and revenue.


  • Hybrid OA has taken up some of the shrinkage in fully OA. Growth in hybrid output and hybrid revenues continues to be strong.


  • Without currency effects, growth would be even slower than the headline numbers suggest. Total OA value would have shrunk by 0.2%, and the overall journals market would have grown at 0.3%. This suggests that underlying growth in the OA market has stalled and that of the overall market grew at around one tenth of long-term trends.


  • Growth in OA has shrunk to that of the underlying scholarly journals market.


  • We anticipate a 2023-2026 CAGR (average growth each year) of 4.9% in OA output and 6.3% in OA market value. This is significantly lower than historical averages.


A note about our method

As ever, we are very grateful to the organizations that participate in our annual survey, which we anonymize and aggregate to inform our estimates. We will shortly send our usual detailed market update and analysis to participants, which breaks out fully OA and hybrid details.


Our market estimates focus on research publications for which money is likely to be paid, either to read or to publish. Our definition of open access excludes “bronze” (public access) and “green” (repository-only) articles.

Rather than simply looking at annual figures, we extract underlying trends to inform strategic decision-making. Each year our source data improves, and we can refine our view on resulting trends as more information becomes available. Therefore, each year we restate historic figures as needed to keep them up to date.


Trends

We have seen a stalling of OA growth in 2023, particularly in fully OA output. We are likely seeing a systemic shift to slower long-term growth as the underlying drivers of the market change.

The large OA-only publishers saw a significant drop in their output in 2023, and this has had a profound effect on the market.


  • Clarivate’s delisting of journals from Web of Science had a knock-on effect across OA-only publishers’ portfolios and was likely the major driver of their decline in output, as authors chose other publication venues. OA publishers’ reduction in the use of special issues greatly reduces a major driver of their growth. Taken together, these two factors suggest we will see a much lower growth rate of fully OA output in future.


  • Established publishers saw an increase in OA volume and value, even if the overall OA market has stalled. They have benefited from authors’ move away from the OA-only publishers. Hybrid OA has increased for the same reasons, and we anticipate that it will continue to grow strongly. Non-OA publishing is also seeing a slight uptick.


  • Given the quality concerns around special issues, it seems unlikely that (many of) their articles would find other outlets, and so overall we are seeing growth in fully OA output stalling.


  • We are likely also seeing the tail-end of the correction from the very high OA growth during COVID.


The data suggest that OA’s share of output has likely peaked in 2023.


  • Our earlier sneak peek at the market suggested it peaked at 49% of output in 2022, falling to 48% in 2023. Our latest data here suggests OA just peaked at 50% share in 2022-2023 and may fall a few percentage points in the coming years.


  • Results from our survey and anecdotal feedback suggest more of the same for 2024: large OA-only publishers are likely to see continued declines, while established publishers will see continued growth.


  • The market will consolidate further. Long-term OA growth is likely to be less that it has been – perhaps mid-to-high single digits – but with increasing shares going to the larger publishers.


In 2023, around 50% of output was OA, accounting for around 20% of its value. This means that on average less money changes hands for OA articles than for non-OA ones.


  • The gap between shares of value and volume has been closing historically but has remained roughly the same over the last couple of years.


  • If the large OA-only publishers can recapture their early growth, then the gap will start narrowing again. However, it seems that established publishers are seeing a greater proportion of income from OA at the expense of others. This suggests the market-wide ratios will remain the same, but the specifics will vary depending on the publisher.


  • Prices have increased, and we anticipate that this will continue, although the effects of mixed-model deals on pricing dynamics have yet to become clear. Hybrid revenues realized per article published remain higher than those published in fully OA journals, and we expect this trend to continue.


  • OA is increasingly delivered as part of mixed-model deals, combining read and publish elements. If deals have price caps, it is possible that some of the OA output moving from OA publishers to larger publisher does not translate into higher OA revenues.


Conclusion

It’s difficult to make predictions – especially about the future. That said, we think that 2023 could prove to be a pivotal year for open access.


The challenges facing the big OA-only publishers in 2023 have been well-rehearsed. Delisting from Web of Science has led to an exodus of authors from across their portfolios. In 2022, we estimated that the big OA publishers – MDPI, Frontiers and Hindawi – together accounted for over 30% of OA market volume. It’s not surprising, then, that a decline in output from these publishers had a profound effect on the marketplace.


The results have been a mix of cannibalization and leakage. Established publishers and other access models have captured some of the publishing demand. Some content may have been subsumed into fixed-price deals, and so has not led to an increase in overall revenue. Then, given the quality concerns of special issues, it’s likely that a good proportion has simply disappeared. The signal to noise ratio has improved, and special issues are no longer fueling the growth that they once did.


The fundamental driver of OA used to be the policies of funder organizations. Now it appears to be those of Clarivate.


We have therefore seen a flatlining of OA growth, and OA share of output is struggling to get beyond 50%. Our models suggest it may pick up in the long term. But for now, at least, we estimate that its share has peaked.


Our industry does not systematically report comprehensive data about market volumes or value. So, any market sizing is an approximation, and figures should be taken as approximate. Subscribers to our Data & Analytics Tool can drill into the numbers in much greater depth, including analyzing fully OA vs. Hybrid OA details, society-specific output and subscription output. Please get in touch if you want to know more.


This article is © 2024 Delta Think, Inc. It is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Please do get in touch if you want to use it in other contexts – we’re usually pretty accommodating.


TOP HEADLINES

Open Access Partnerships Key to Increasing the Global Impact of African Research – October 16, 2024

“The work of researchers in Africa is experiencing increased international reach, supported by new open access (OA) partnerships between research libraries and publishers. Recent forums in South Africa have highlighted the importance of this cooperation for the continued growth and impact of Africa’s rich research output.”


cOAlition S announces the release of an independent study on the impact of Plan S – October 15, 2024

“cOAlition S is pleased to announce the release of an independent, comprehensive study assessing the impact of Plan S on the scholarly communication landscape. Conducted by scidecode science consulting, following a tender process, this study provides the first assessment of the impact of Plan S five years after its launch.”


Over 50 Independent Publishers Commit to BioOne Subscribe to Open Pilot – October 8, 2024

“BioOne, the leading nonprofit aggregator in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences, today announced that 71 titles from 54 global societies, museums, and research organizations will participate in its Subscribe to Open (S2O) pilot beginning in January 2026. This represents the largest number of independent publishers under a single S2O offer to date.”


Taylor & Francis Announces Subscribe to Open Journals Pilot – October 1, 2024

“Taylor & Francis has today announced its first Subscribe to Open (S2O) pilot, one of several innovative options it is trialing to accelerate open access (OA) publishing. S2O enables a journal’s subscribers to support its conversion to OA, making new articles available to readers everywhere.”


Update on UKRI’s journey to open access – September 16, 2024

“UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) is working collaboratively with stakeholders to support implementation of its open access policy. The policy applied since April 2022 for research articles and since January 2024 for monographs, book chapters and edited collections.”



OA JOURNAL LAUNCHES

October 17, 2024

EULAR Launches New Open-access Journal – EULAR Rheumatology Open (ERO)

“The European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) proudly announces the launch of its new open-access journal, a pioneering platform dedicated to advancing research and knowledge in the field of rheumatology.”


October 7, 2024

Penn State University Libraries Open Publishing launches Stroke Clinician journal

“Penn State University Libraries’ Open Publishing program has partnered with the Association of Neurovascular Clinicians (ANVC) to launch a new open access clinical journal, Stroke Clinician.”


October 3, 2024

AIP Publishing to Launch New Open Access Journal, APL Computational Physics

“AIP Publishing announced today the latest addition in its open access portfolio, APL Computational Physics. The new journal is slated to open for submissions in early 2025.”


September 24, 2024

ESE expands journal portfolio with the launch of Environmental Endocrinology and Obesity and Endocrinology

“The European Society of Endocrinology (ESE) is delighted to announce the launch of two new multidisciplinary, open-access journals, Environmental Endocrinology and Obesity and Endocrinology. The Journals will be published by Oxford University Press, with the launch issues scheduled for Q2 2025.”


September 17, 2024

IOP Publishing expands its open access environmental portfolio with Environmental Research: Water

“IOP Publishing (IOPP) is launching Environmental Research: Water a new open access (OA) journal which offers an interdisciplinary forum for researchers working to achieve water sustainability globally.”


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A blue hot air balloon is flying in the night sky.
By Lori Carlin December 6, 2024
Welcome to the next issue of Delta Think's Ideas in Action - ideas that spark your imagination and encourage creativity...information that makes you stop and THINK! Want to know more about partnering with Delta Think? Contact Delta Think at info@deltathink.com to set up a time to meet and learn more. Charleston Conference 2024 Reflections November always marks several noteworthy activities and events both personally and professionally, including one of our favorites – the Charleston Conference – where stakeholders from all areas of our industry – librarians, service providers, and publishers alike, get the opportunity to debate, collaborate, and share insights. Richard Charkin, OBE, described the Conference this way in his 2024 opening keynote remarks: “This meeting is incredibly important. Serious people debating serious issues.” We agree and add that the spirit of Charleston is also grounded in engagement – with colleagues and friends and making time for a bit of fun. Karaoke optional! Whether you were able to attend or not, here are some reflections on the 2024 Conference from the Delta Think Team. Libraries as Leaders – Lori Carlin The first thing that hit me was the energy of the conference overall; it was invigorating. Walking into the exhibit area on Vendor Day, you could sense a heightened level of interest from attendees eager to see and hear about new and interesting developments. Is it AI that is fostering this renewed energy? AI is certainly a hot topic, as stakeholders wonder how to best incorporate AI into their products, services, and workflows. Or perhaps the spotlight on Research Integrity and the various products that can help the scholarly community address these issues. Whatever the reason, I have always appreciated Charleston’s approach to exhibits, with a single dedicated day for vendors to showcase their wares, and the packed ballroom left no doubt that this concentrated attendee/vendor time was appreciated by all. As for sessions, the Opening Keynote featuring Katina Strauch and Richard Charkin was interesting – both bringing their own sense of wit to their description of their different but equally circuitous paths to scholarly publishing and their eventual role as community leaders. I also have to call out a session I moderated – “Keeping Libraries as Central Players in an Evolving Teaching and Learning Space,” and not because I moderated it! It was the librarian panelists as well as the interaction from the audience that made this session lively and interesting. What it reinforced for me is the leadership role librarians now play as not only information resource agents and gatekeepers in their communities, but data analysts, policy drivers, and educators, ensuring that advancements in teaching and learning are recognized and implemented. Books and eBooks in the Spotlight – Diane Harnish There was a noticeable “buzz” at Charleston around eBooks and book-based content. Whether for teaching and learning or research usage occasions, the value of book collections, or exploration of evolving funding models and roles, books were top-of-mind for librarians and publishers. For example, “Whose Future Is It? Practical Strategies for Supporting Community-led Open Access Book Publishing” focused on how libraries can take a leadership role in open access book publishing. The concurrent session was full of practical insights into how libraries develop effective strategies to support community-led and academy-owned OA book publishing, with an emphasis on equity. On a more macro-scale, Niels Stern, Managing Director, DOAB & OAPEN Foundation led a Neapolitan discussion entitled “Open Access Policies for Books: Librarian Roles in Nudging Institutional and National Change” which explored the work of the recently concluded PALOMERA Project, an initiative to examine and analyze the research policies and strategies for open-access books in 39 countries in the European research area. The project generated evidenced-based, actionable recommendations to “help ensure that books don't get ‘left behind’” in a global move toward open research. I found this session ideal for any stakeholder – library, funder, or publisher – interested in ensuring sustainable infrastructure for eBook, especially scholarly monographs. After more than 30 years in scholarly communication, this was my first Charleston and I will definitely be back! Research Integrity + AI and Copyright – Heather Staines Working closely with Dr. Elisabeth Bik and Dr. Ivan Oransky to explore research integrity issues was timely and enlightening. While there are many new tools to detect misconduct, both agreed that focusing on the human factor will be key—seeking change in research assessment and the kinds of publications that count. Their Neapolitan, “Challenges and Opportunities Around Research Integrity: A Conversation” session provided an informative overview of some of the most biggest challenges to research integrity (image manipulation, paper mills) and how Retraction Watch, COPE Guidelines, and other tools can be used by all stakeholders to raise awareness and help ensure the integrity of the scientific record. The other session which kept my interest was the “Long Arm of the Law” moderated by Ann Okerson. Copyright Clearance Center’s Roy Kaufman helped scope out the legal issues related to AI companies using copyrighted content to train their LLMs and shed some light on cases related to copyright and LLM training currently winding their way through the courts. ITHAKA’s Nancy Kopans followed JSTOR’s perspective as an aggregator working to balance the rights of copyright holders and publishers with the needs of students, faculty, and researchers. Definitely an area to watch! Katina’s Legacy – Meg White Charleston founder and convener Katina Strauch has passed the torch, but her legacy is a reminder that there is always more to discover, learn, and tackle. She never slows down and in many ways, defines what it means to always be evolving, embodying a true growth mindset. Katina and Richard Charkin kicked off the conference with a “Fireside Chat” Keynote moderated by Richard Gallagher, President and Editor-in-Chief of Annual Reviews (and the new owner of the Charleston Hub). As Lori mentioned, these two trailblazers were meeting for the first time, but they reflected on shared pivotal moments in their professional lives, including the intersection of publishing and librarianship, as we have moved from the internet to digitization of content and collections, and now to AI. I had the pleasure of interviewing Katina as part of the Charleston Leadership Interviews and the ATG Podcast, so watch for that conversation coming soon at the Charleston Hub. Her passion certainly informs many of the key values we strive for here at Delta Think as we work with the scholarly communications community to LEARN, PLAN, ACHIEVE. Bravo! Finally, we offer our congratulations to writer, director, producer, and star Heather Staines and her merry band of players. Thank you for an entertaining look at libraries, publishing, education, research, academia, and more in “Schmetadata: The Musical” a light-hearted start to the Conference’s final day. Next Steps What were your “aha moments” at Charleston 2024? What are your organization’s biggest priorities and challenges for 2025 and beyond? At Delta Think, we believe in the power of collaboration and innovation to drive progress. We can help you embrace change and unlock your potential. Reach out today to start the conversation and we look forward to hearing more. More Ideas News & Views: Market Sizing Update 2024: Has OA Hit A Peak? (Oct 2024) –Each year, Delta Think’s Market Sizing analyzes the value of the open access (OA) scholarly journals market. This is the revenue generated by providers or the costs incurred by buyers of content. We estimate the OA segment of the market to have grown to just over $2.2bn in 2023. This is only a marginal growth over the previous year… ( read more ) Content Licensing Do’s and Don’ts in the Age of AI (Oct 2024) – Artificial Intelligence’s (AI) seemingly endless capabilities and applications present great opportunities (and some challenges too) for publishers and societies across the publishing enterprise. One of the main areas of both growth and reason for caution to emerge is the potential to license scholarly content to AI providers—primarily to be used… ( read more ) Exploring AI (Sept 2024) – AI technologies have already sparked profound changes across our industry, enabling machines to perform tasks that previously required an abundance of human intelligence. AI algorithms can analyze vast datasets to uncover patterns, LLMs can generate coherent text, and genAI can simulate human-like creativity. Here we explore some of… ( read more ) Events We’ll be attending the following events. Please contact us at info@deltathink.com if you’d like to set up a time to chat. APE, January 14-15 Researcher to Reader, February 20-21 ER&L, March 3-6 London Book Fair, March 11-13 2025 NAS Journal Summit, March 19-20 Turn Your Ideas Into Action A partnership with Delta Think can provide the expert insights you need to meet your goals and amplify your ability to: Learn about new and evolving insights, perspectives, and possibilities Market Research and Intelligence Customer Insight and Experience Data Analytics and Market Evidence Plan your path forward to success Business and Product Strategy Commercial Optimization Brand, Marketing, and CDP Strategies Achieve your goals Manage Change Implement Projects, Products, and Partnerships Build Results Metrics and Analysis O ur insatiable curiosity, coupled with our expertise in data-driven, evidence-based analysis, and strategy development – TOGETHER – we will discover your best path forward. Want to know more? Schedule a call today or visit deltathink.com
By Heather Staines October 31, 2024
We are proud to share a video recording of our October News & Views companion online discussion forum! Join us for our annual update of the market size and revenue share of Open Access and a lively conversation around the trends and the wider issues that may be informing the overall market in scholarly communications.  If you missed the session, or if you attended and would like to watch/listen again, or share forward with friends, please feel free!
A clipboard with the words do 's and don 'ts written on it
By Lori Carlin October 21, 2024
Artificial Intelligence’s (AI) seemingly endless capabilities and applications present great opportunities (and some challenges too) for publishers and societies across the publishing enterprise. One of the main areas of both growth and reason for caution to emerge is the potential to license scholarly content to AI providers—primarily to be used to “train” large language models (LLMs). While this type of licensing opportunity may be compelling, it requires thoughtful integration into the organization’s overall content portfolio management and revenue strategy. Recently announced licensing agreements between scholarly and academic publishers and technology companies highlight AI’s insatiable demand for primary, verified, reliable information. AI developers rely on this high-quality, vetted content to train models, refine algorithms, and enhance natural language processing capabilities. 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Prioritize Content Based on Value – Categorize content by demand and monetization potential to tailor licensing strategies for different segments (e.g., niche vs. broad appeal). Introduce Strategic Pricing Models – Experiment with flexible pricing strategies like volume-based, usage-based, or hybrid models to reflect content value and accommodate AI providers’ diverse needs. Complement and Enhance Existing Revenue Streams – Ensure that AI licensing supports rather than undermines other revenue channels (subscriptions, APCs, institutional licensing, etc.). Consider tiered access or differentiated pricing for recent vs. older content. Collaborate with AI Companies Ethically – Build partnerships that ensure responsible content usage. Establish guidelines for ethical AI content generation, labeling, and attribution. Protect Author Rights – Ensure that licensing agreements comply with existing contracts and protect authors’ rights. Proactively manage relationships with scholars to maintain trust and uphold their interests. Be Prepared for Market Shifts – Experimentation is the order of the day but the market and innovation is moving fast. Adopt flexible frameworks to quickly adjust to technological changes or shifts in demand for licensed content. Maintain Transparency and Communication – Keep authors, research communities, and internal stakeholders informed about how the organization’s content is licensed and used by AI firms. Consider Partnering with Other Content Providers – Strategically partner with publishing peers to offer a broader range of niche content. Collectively negotiate through a ‘power in numbers’ approach. Don’t: Rely Solely on AI-Driven Revenue – Avoid becoming over-reliant on revenue from AI licensing, as market shifts could jeopardize financial stability if demand for licensed content declines. Undermine Content Value – Be cautious of pricing models that risk devaluing content over time, especially as AI-generated content becomes more sophisticated. Ignore Unintended Consequences – Don’t overlook the potential for content devaluation or the blurring of lines between original research and AI-generated outputs. Neglect Author Concerns – Don’t disregard the potential for author questions, dissatisfaction, or misuse of their work. Always respect contractual obligations and maintain productive relationships with the academic community. Overlook Ethical Concerns – Avoid participating in licensing agreements without ensuring ethical guidelines for the use of AI-generated content, including issues like data privacy and security. Ignore the Long-Term Impact on Scholarly Publishing – Don’t assume AI-driven licensing won’t affect traditional publication models. Proactively assess how AI might impact and change peer review, publication demand, and researcher incentives. Final Thoughts Licensing content to AI providers is certainly a potential opportunity for publishers. That opportunity also comes with possible risks and the need for some caution. These Do’s and Don’ts serve as a starting point to help you begin to frame out how partnerships with AI providers may or may not “fit” with your strategy, mission, and organizational goals, while acknowledging the need to consider safeguards to protect the integrity of your content, author relationships, and long-term sustainability. Delta Think can help your organization understand the unique opportunities and challenges of integrating AI licensing into a comprehensive content portfolio management strategy. Ready to start the conversation? Contact us today. As Ideas in Action went to press, Ithaka S&R announced a Generative AI Licensing Agreement Tracker to help capture the details, impact, and strategy of these deals.
A sign that says market sizing coming soon on it
By Dan Pollock and Heather Staines September 18, 2024
In July, we shared a sneak peek at the 2023 market size, based on our annual publisher survey, and we’re currently heads down finalizing our analysis of the trends, along the corresponding revenue for both fully OA and hybrid content. Look for this important update News & Views in mid-October. We’ll also hold our annual free webinar… Read More The post News & Views: Register now for Delta Think’s 2024 Market Sizing Update Webinar appeared first on Delta Think.
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A red and white percent sign on a red background.
By Dan Pollock and Heather Staines July 16, 2024
Each year, Delta Think analyzes the volume and value of the scholarly journals market. This month, we present preliminary results about volumes of journal output ahead of our full sizing results later in the year. Total publication volumes continue to increase across the whole market, and for Open Access. However, Open Access (OA) lost share… Read More The post News & Views: Open Access Loses Share – Market Sizing 2024 Sneak Peek appeared first on Delta Think.
A person is holding a wooden block with a percent sign on it.
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Earlier in the year, we looked at the latest Article Processing Charges (APCs). This month we look at how they have risen compared with inflation. We saw some larger-than-average price rises going into 2024. Does this suggest prices are rising, or might APCs be reducing in real terms? Background Each year we survey the list Article… Read More The post News & Views: The Realities of Increasing Open Access Charges appeared first on Delta Think.
A dollar sign is floating on top of an orange life preserver in the ocean
By Dan Pollock and Heather Staines May 14, 2024
This month we update our review of sponsored (“diamond”) open access journals. As conversations about non-APC based open access models are continuing at pace, we find out if anything has changed over the last year. Background We have previously discussed how APC-based models of open access (even with waivers) have been increasingly criticized as non-inclusive. We… Read More The post News & Views: Sponsored Journals Update appeared first on Delta Think.
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